Trump’s 40% Solution to Get Elected: Win with a Minority of the Vote

Donald Trump’s favorability rating has never much passed 40% that’s OK with him. In fact, it’s his reelection plan.

His strategy is one that assumes mobilizing an energetic base is more important than appealing to undecided middle-of-the road voters. His far-right policies and combative rhetoric reinforced by conservative media are intended to keep his base in a state of frenzy about the threat to America he’s fighting against.

It’s called engagement though enragement.

But Trump still cannot win simply by turning out the 40% of the voters that constitute his base. He also has to count on his opponents doing their part to elect them too. That means some of them must do what they did in 2016 — either vote third party or stay home and not vote. That was the lesson of the 2016 election for Trump, which he has built into the assumptions of his reelection plan.

Specifically, Trump was able to pull off his 2016 upset in part because of his fostering of such a negative the campaign atmosphere that many voters adopted a plague-on-both-your-houses approach by not voting for either major party. Then, he picked up enough of the undecided, swing voters even if they didn’t like either candidate.

There is little that voters who oppose Trump can do about the turnout of his own supporters. However, there’s a lot they can do to prevent votes from other voters who also dislike Trump from leaking away to oblivion. If you’re a numbers geek, the next section of this blog illustrates how this election could still add up to another victory for Trump. If you’re not, you can skip to the final section that covers what you can do about it and why it’s important.

How could Trump win with only a 40% favorable rating?

A little thought experiment helps to show how Trump can parley his 40% strategy into an election victory. It’s actually a 40-40-40% solution: motivate 40% of the likely voters who are your base, then suppress uncommitted voters by 40%, and finally get just 40% of the remaining swing votes.

It can not only succeed, it could produce results eerily similar to those from 2016. A few caveats. This is not a prediction, it is an illustration of what could be in Trump’s plan. And the numbers are not meant to be precise, but merely to indicate that such a strategy could work.

Start with imagining a pool of 100 likely (but not guaranteed) voters. And then apply Trump’s 40% solution step-by-step.

1. Give Trump 40% of the voters based on those who view him favorably, and the same amount to Biden, who is viewed favorably by more voters but perhaps less enthusiastically so (40 voters each; 20 uncommitted).
2. Assume voter restrictions and the negative political atmosphere gets 40% of the remaining potential voters (8) to drop out of the equation by supporting third party candidates or not voting at all. (20-8=12 remaining voters).
3. Award Trump 40% of the final swing and leaning voters (Trump 40+4.8) and Biden the rest (Biden 40+7.2).
4. Compute the final 40% scenario tally and compare it to the final 2016 popular vote as follows:

2020 Tally: Trump 44.8 Biden 47.2 Third Party/Not Voting 8.0

2016 Actual: Trump 45.9% Clinton 48.0% Third Party 6.1%

Yes, that’s right, Trump’s 40% solution in theory could produce an almost identical popular vote result to what he had against Hillary Clinton in 2016. But most importantly, when combined with the small-state, Republican bias of the electoral college, it could produce another win for him even if he loses the popular vote.

So, what can be done to counter the Trump strategy?

Voters that want to see Trump defeated need to realize that this is a race that is far from over. Countering the Trump reelection threat requires an understanding that, while there are some things that cannot be controlled, there are many actions that can be taken to make sure 2020 is different than 2016.

• Accept this is a close election. One has to assume that Trump has an instinct for doing what it takes to get his supporters to go to the polls. One also has to allow that he could even drive historic levels of turnout among the types of voters that support him. The only thing to be done about this is not to get caught off guard as many were in 2016 and fight to the finish.
• Show up. Concentrate on what you can control. This means first and foremost voting. Trump’s strategy relies heavily on a portion of the population that opposes him to simply not go to the polls. Indeed, some experts believe that voters who swing back and forth between voting and not voting are larger in number and can have greater electoral impact than those that swing back and forth between the two parties. If you don’t want Trump to be president, then realize that there’s something you can do about it — namely, voting.
• Make your vote count. In both 2000 and 2016, the Green Party had enough votes to tip the electoral college from the Democrat — who was the winner of the popular vote — to the Republican. The good news is that third party voters from 2016 are for now trending to Biden. So, if you are a third-party voter from 2016 and you’re unhappy with how Trump has turned out, vote for the only candidate who has a chance to defeat him, Joe Biden.
• Get active. Don’t just vote. Get your friends to vote and get them to get their friends vote too. Use all the social media tools at your disposal and don’t forget in-person contact as well in making the case for Biden. Studies show that interpersonal political testimonials from one people to another have become an influential fixture of contemporary politics.
• Consider early voting. Most states allow vote-by-mail or in-person absentee voting without requiring an excuse. Despite the president’s attempts to suppress mail-in ballots, it is regarded by election experts as being virtually free from fraud. However, beware that many mail-in ballots get rejected because they arrive too late. If you are going to use this method of voting, cast your ballot as soon as you can and track it. Your state may also allow early in-person or absentee voting, avoiding long lines or a mail crunch. Options vary by state, so find out more about your state here.
• Donate if you can. Campaign finance reform is badly needed in our system, but until then candidates we support also need our financial help. Even small donations add up if enough people kick in, as Bernie Sanders showed. If you are an environmental voter, I recommend making donations to candidates through the givegreen.com website. It’s easy to use, provides useful sorting options and research depending upon your interests, and is operated by a consortium of environmental groups.
• Support reform of the electoral college. Although this is a long-term issue, it is past time to address the inequities and obsolescence of the electoral college. Biden may have to win by five million votes nationally or lead statistically by three percentage points in polling to squeeze out a majority in the electoral college. Most electoral college reforms would require a constitutional amendment, but the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact would not. This is a voluntary agreement among states to commit in advance of an election to throw all their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the most popular votes. Already 15 states and D.C. (totaling 196 electoral votes) have joined the compact, which only goes into effect if the electoral count of the member states comprises a majority (270 or more).

Elections are determined by who shows up. Majorities of Americans favor the Biden position over Trump on such important issues as handling the coronavirus, providing health care coverage, and addressing climate change. Yet what Trump seems to have learned from 2016 is that he can rule the country with a minority of its support by using an extreme base-energizing strategy.

But a base-energizing strategy by itself cannot win unless voters who oppose him fall into his trap by not voting, voting third party, or not doing everything they can to get others to oppose him. They should not play Trump’s game. The numbers show if they stick together and show up for Biden, they win. If they don’t, they won’t.