Time to Vote and Hope for Change: Your Guide to Tonight’s Election Results

The election is finally here but not even the experts are sure which way it will go. With so many moving parts, it’s handy to have just a few weather vane races to follow to see which way the wind is blowing.

So, here’s a guide to use to keep track of trends. In each case, there are three key states to watch for the House, the Senate or the nation’s governors.

But first, the lay of the land.

• Most experts predict that Democrats are likely to win control of the House while the Republicans will hold their majority in the Senate. However, neither party is likely to end with a big majority unless a lot of events break their way.
• The numbers for the House at RealClearPolitics (RCP) show Democrats leading in 203 safe or leaning seats and with the Republicans at 194 (218 are needed to win). That leaves the Democrats in a good, but not guaranteed, position since they would only need 14 of the remaining 38 “toss-up” races. Another election site, fivethirtyeight.com, predicts an 88% probability of a Democratic takeover with a predicted 232-198 final breakdown between Democrats and Republicans.
• The Senate has been heading in a different direction in recent predictions. RCP has the Republicans leading in enough states to give them a 53-47 final total, a pickup of two seats. At fivethirtyeight.com, the likelihood of continued Republican control is put at 81%, an almost mirror image of the House.
• If this result feels like a bit of a standoff, then look to the states to decide the rubber match. Here the Democrats are looking much more commanding. RCP puts 11 races for governor into the toss-up category, estimating a potential net gain of seven for the Democrats by the end of the night.

Of course, predictions based on polling are not the same as projections based on voting (or else Hillary Clinton would be out there defending her record as president). We know some of these predictions are off; we just don’t know which way or by how much (and the experts admit this). There could be systematic polling errors with certain groups, such as with the “shy” Trump supporters in 2016. Undecided voters could decisively break against the party in power in the White House (good for Democrats) or against incumbents generally (good for Senate Republicans).

Perhaps most importantly, a major theory for Democrats will be tested regarding their efforts to get base voter turnout up without turning independents off. This theory calls for a new generation of candidates that are younger, more racially diverse, and more often female running for office on broad issues of importance (health care, gun safety, environmental protection) without falling into mere posturing about identity politics. Of course, Trump has his own theory (or gut instinct) about what will mobilize his supporters. He has concentrated on statements about Kavanaugh, caravans and chaos to stoke racial and gender resentments with little effort to make appeals that go beyond his base. In short, it’s a turnout election.

So which states will tell you who’s winning the battle and guide you through this maze?

For the Senate—Look to Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee

As the fight for the Senate unfolded this summer, the logic for the Democrats became clear if cold: If they could reelect all their incumbents but one, then they would need to take away three seats held by the GOP — with Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee offering the best targets.

Now the likely loss of the Democratic incumbent in North Dakota (Heidi Heitkamp) makes this scenario more probable. Arizona and Tennessee became plausible this year because the incumbent Republicans were retiring, creating open seats, and Nevada was the only state carried by Hillary Clinton in which a Republican was running for reelection (Dean Heller).

But the Republicans in the Senate hold a major geographic advantage in the election. The Democrats had a disproportionate number of seats in cycle this year, including 10 that had gone for Trump in 2016 and in some cases by double digits. As a result, as least five Democratic incumbents are currently rated in the RCP tossup category, versus only two for the GOP (Arizona and Nevada). In fact, the Tennessee race is actually leaning against the Democratic challenger (Phil Bredesen), a popular former governor, running against U.S. Representative, Marsha Blackburn, a Trump-style politician. The loss of any one of these three states or the defeat of an additional Democratic incumbent would necessitate a Democratic win in Texas, a race in which they have never led.

For the House—Look to Florida, New York and Virginia

During the year, the logic of the Democrat’s course in the House also became clear, and more encouraging. Overall, they need a net gain of 23 seats, and according to RCP analysis they are well on their way there, needing only an additional 14 of the remaining tossups if they win all the races leaning in their direction. To this goal their pathways are numerous and varied by type of district. Add to this the lead Democrats have maintained in the generic congressional ballot polls, the RCP average of which today is 7.3%, about the amount Democratic strategists said they need for a takeover.

Ultimate control of the House may not be known until all the results from the west coast roll in and the final ballots counted. But early trends could be established by looking at the returns in three eastern time zone states: Florida, New York and Virginia. These three states together possess seven tossup districts, plus eight districts leaning Democratic or Republican.

To spot early trends in the House, consider these three scenarios:

(1) Democrats pop the champagne early—Altogether these three states have six seats leaning to the GOP. If the Democrats take early leads in these districts, it will be a sign that a true blue wave is coming. Put the champagne on ice, Democrats, you may not even need to stay up late.

Watch FL-16, FL-18, NY-1, NY-11, NY-27 and VA-2

(2) Democrats reach for the hard stuff—Of course, a late Republican surge as in 2016 could defy the polls and sweep in their direction a large number of seats with late deciders or especially enthusiastic base voters. If this prospect is turning into a trend, it should show up in five key districts currently leaning to or likely for going for Democrats.

Watch FL-7, FL-13, NY-3, NY-18 and VA-10

(3) Democrats put on another pot of coffee—If events more closely follow the polls than in either of the first two scenarios, then the night could turn into a district-by-district fight for majority control and go late into the night. But if the Democrats win all the districts currently leaning their way nationally, then sweeping the seven tossup districts in these three states provide about half of what they need ultimately to secure the House.

Watch FL-15, FL-26, FL-27, NY-19, NY-22 and VA-7

For the Governors—look to Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin

One of the most surprising outcomes of the 2016 presidential race was Trump’s successes in perennial swings states, such as Florida and Ohio, but also late-breaking victories in Democratic bastions in the Midwest such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All of these states were carried by Barack Obama in 2012 and figure large in Democratic party plans for 2020 and beyond. Governor races in Michigan and Pennsylvania seem safe for the Democrats, but the other three states have tight, high-profile races.

Florida—The Democrat, Andrew Gillum, holds a slim poll lead over his rival, Ron DeSantis. Win or lose, Gillum’s campaign will a major case study in whether a new style of activist-oriented progressive strategy can work for the Democrats. And a win for Gillum could also help lift Democrats running for the House and Senate.

Ohio — Ohio had been a long-time, all-American swing state until Trump ran away with it in 2016. Now Democrats had been making a strong showing not only in House and Senate races, but also in the contest for governors where former Obama administration official, Richard Cordray, is running neck-and-neck with Ohio Attorney General Mike Dewine.

Wisconsin — Republican incumbent governor Scott Walker, long a target of progressives, is in the fight of his life as Tony Evers has run a spirited campaign against him. This race is now a true tossup with implications beyond its borders.

There are certainly other notable races for governor including in Iowa, which also went for Obama and then Trump and a key presidential nomination stop, and Georgia, which is likely headed to a run-off. But for sheer political throw weigh on election night, my sights will be on these big three.

So, what’s at stake tonight?

As an American, I believe that nothing less than what kind of nation we want to be is on the ballot. It’s a case of style over substance, but in a profound sense of what we expect as suitable behavior in our leaders.

But substance matters too. The Trump administration and its allies in Congress have created one of the worst anti-environmental records in history. Their attacks are too many to number here, but include reversing major Obama limits on carbon pollution and gutting the roles of the Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Interior as protectors of our air, water and wild places.

The environmental community is going all out to secure wins for its friends. To see more, check out GiveGreen.org, a joint election project of the League of Conservation Voters and the NRDC Action Fund. Give Green identifies key races where campaign donations can have the biggest impact, based on the environmental records of the candidates and where the money is most needed. The Senate races in Arizona and Nevada and the governor contests in Ohio and Wisconsin have all been tagged as environmental priorities. In Florida, New York and Virginia, eleven of the House districts listed above have also been rated priorities.

So, grab your guide, get your favorite beverage (soft, hard or bubbly) and put yourself in front of the incoming results. But, of course, only after you’ve cast your own vote.