The XYZs of a Clinton Victory: Can Climate Help Clinch a Win?

Hillary Clinton is leading to be the next president according to recent polls, but her campaign still has a lot to do. The only polling that really matters is the polling booth on election day.

In a previous blog I noted how Trump could still win. He hopes that the negative campaign he has helped create will end up favoring him where turnout is concerned. The ABCs of a Trump victory thus would be: (1) Alienated progressives staying home; (2) Big Base Turnout of working class whites; and (3) Conservatives coming home after flirting with third parties. Many of Trump’s policies, such as his anti-environmental positions on energy and climate, have been used to promote these outcomes.

Now it’s time to look at the critical groups that Clinton needs to show up for her on election day, especially women, youth and minorities. Fortunately many of her main policies, including clean energy and the environment, are very appealing to these groups. Let’s call it the XYZs of a Clinton win.

• X is for X-Chromosome voters who care about issues affecting women.
• Y is for Young voters concerned about their future.
• Z is for a Zebra coalition of ethnic groups from black to white who all want economic opportunity.

Although Clinton currently leads in the polls, her support among female independents, youth of both sexes, and working class minorities still needs firming up. If Trump believes he has an advantage, it’s the intensity of his supporters which his campaign is designed to exploit.

Much of this election has been driven by the personalities involved. But to Clinton’s credit, befitting a candidate with her years of public service, she has laid out detailed proposals for America’s future and the candidates stand miles apart on energy and environmental policy. These distinctions make a difference to their supporters and could still affect swing voters. In contrast to Trump, she embraces the science that says climate change needs to be addressed and wants to make the U.S. the clean energy superpower of the world.

So let’s look at three key groups in turn and consider how energy and environmental policy can still affect the election.

X is for X-Chromosome Voters who care about issues affecting women.

If Clinton wins in November, the election of the first woman president will be a history making result. The significance of this has not always been a sufficient deal-closer with moderate women who lean Republican and younger voters who backed Bernie Sanders. However, since the first debate her advantage with women voters compared to men has ballooned and now greatly exceeds the slim lead Trump maintains with men.

Undoubtedly much of this shift has to do with the infamous Trump bus tape and subsequent accusations by several women against him. However, the Clinton campaign has had an advantage with this demographic through her focus on healthcare issues, paid family leave, and equal pay for equal work. And not surprisingly women by a double-digit margin compared to men believe that climate change is happening and could affect them personally.

Y is for Young Voters concerned about their future.

In this election young voters have voiced an overall desire for change as well as basic concerns about school debt and future job prospects. But younger voters have also highlighted the need to address longer-term issues such as protecting the environment by fighting global warming and promoting clean energy. Bernie Sanders used environmental issues to attract their support, pushing Clinton on the subject despite her long history of work on environmental matters.

Clinton’s challenge with younger voters isn’t proving to them that Trump is so bad on so many of their issues but proving voting for her is the right alternative. Indeed, historically many young people (as well as minorities) just stay home. Convincing them that she has heard their concerns and means what she says is essential to her task. Taking a strong position on and giving emphasis to an issue they care a lot about like environmental protection helps her to get there.

Z is for a Zebra coalition of ethnic groups from black to white who all want economic opportunity.

Many issues in this campaign have sharply divided the American people, especially along racial and class lines. Clinton needs to show she can be a president who can help everyone get ahead regardless of their background by addressing deep anxieties and attempting to provide economic opportunity for all. This includes reaching out both to working class whites, starting with those who initially supported Sanders, and minorities such as blacks, Latinos, Asians and others who continue to face particular economic challenges.

Trump’s campaign has often been painful to watch as he has sought to deepen these divides and play one group off another by building on his birther movement past with proposals such as building the border wall with Mexico and banning all Muslins from entering the United States. These issues will be the defining ones for many minorities, who are favoring Clinton by large margins. But once again her challenge will be to get these groups to the polls when they have historically voted in lower proportions than whites.

Clean energy and climate change can again play a part with these groups. Minorities generally believe that climate change is real and requires action, and often at higher levels than whites. Furthermore, the jobs that could be created by making American the world’s clean energy leader would often be jobs that working class whites and minorities alike would be able to do, such as constructing sources of renewable energy or weatherizing our home and offices.

Clinton’s Home Stretch

Important issues are at stake in this election, and they matter to voters. In the past year there has been a strong uptick in the number of Americans supporting action on climate change according to Gallup, and with another poll showing that two-thirds of voters say they would be less likely to support a candidate who denied the need to act on climate. A recent Washington Post 50-state survey showed notably that the environment was the most important issue for 8 percent of the population, trailing the economy and healthcare, but leading immigration and foreign policy. These numbers could make a decisive difference in the end.

So when Trump goes low by claiming the election will be rigged by fraudulent people voting early and often, Clinton should go high by explaining how her policies would make the lives of people better. And a good way to do that is by talking about how she will help create a new generation of clean energy jobs while saving the environment. She’s done that early, now she needs to do it often.