Democrats Passed Two of Three Tests in the Mid-terms: So Why the Long Faces?
The election ended up a clear defeat for President Trump and the GOP. They lost control of the U.S. House and have fewer governors, even if they picked up a couple seats in the Senate. For the Democrats, as they say, two out of three ain’t bad.
Yet, in so many ways the night had also become a disappointment for many Democrats. They had hoped the nation would send a loud and clear message to Trump that his politics of fear and division were not acceptable by sweeping Democrats into control at every level. Now there was static mixing up the message.
And initial reports from the Senate had been especially discouraging, since they permitted Trump to claim a big win for himself.
Siiiiigh.
However, as the facts of the mid-term have gelled it’s increasingly apparent that the GOP’s defeat was severe. Let’s review the mounting results.
Congressional Races
- A Popular Vote Thumping for Trump — There was only one national mid-term total that measured Trump’s overall popularity and that was the aggregate popular vote for the U.S. House. More votes for the House continue to come in for the Democrats, but the tally currently stands at Democrats 54.1 million (51.7%) and Republicans 48.7million (46.6%), in the largest mid-term turnout of voters in history.
- Democrats Increasing Control of House — House Democrats got the big popular vote that was needed to overcome extreme gerrymandering by the GOP. Currently the Democrats have won 228 seats overall with nine more up for grabs (218 needed for control). They are predicted to eventually net nearly 40 seats, while the Congress is shaping up to being one of the most diverse ever, reflecting the wisdom of Democrats appealing to women, younger voters and people of color. This is the biggest net gain of seats for the Democrats since Watergate.
- Republican Control of the Senate Slipping — Mid-evening returns in Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada and North Dakota threatened a potential rout for the Democrats. Since then, however, a blue tide has steadily brought in more votes and the results look quite different: now two seats have switched to the Democrats (AZ and NV) and three to the Republicans (IN, MO and ND) for a net change of only a single seat. One seat remains undecided (FL) with the Republican leading. Even if the Republicans end up barely netting two seats, this is a moral victory for the Democrats (who faced a historically bad playing field drastically tilted towards red states) that better positions them for a takeover in 2020.
State Races
Let’s be clear about what happened at the state level. The Republicans took a beat-down. Why does this matter? First, governors form a bench for the party to draw on in future races. For example, before Trump (who is the only president to not have had any prior public service) four of the previous six candidates elected president had all been governors. Second, the shift in governors and state legislatures make Democratic redistricting prospects after 2020 much more favorable.
Oh yeah, third, let’s not forget that in a federal system the states actually implement a lot of the political policies that affect people’s everyday lives. That means if you’re concerned about health care, education, gun safety or climate change, and you live in one of the states where the Democrats gained power, you now might be better off even if Washington remains gridlocked.
- Democrats Man (and Woman) More Governor Mansions — The gain of seven governors for the Democrats was a huge rebuke of the Republican party under Trump, and at least four of them will be women. Altogether Democratic governors now head 23 states with a majority of the U.S. population. But there are even more ominous signs for Trump than the shift in the sheer total. In three presidential swing states won by Obama and then Trump (Florida, Iowa and Ohio), Republican candidates garnered amounts much less than Trump’s 2016 margin. In another three typically Democratic states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), where Trump pulled off his most surprising victories in 2016, the GOP got clobbered by losing not only races for governor, but all three Senate contests and a net of five House seats. This spells big trouble for Trump, who is unlikely to get reelected if he loses all three of those states.
- Democrats Made Strides in State Legislatures — While Obama was president, Republicans picked up about a thousand seats in state legislatures, which then turned around and gave the GOP a large gerrymandered advantage in both state and federal legislative districts. The mid-terms netted back about a quarter of these seats for the Democrats. As a result, the country is much more equally divided between states with complete Republican control of the legislature and the governor (20) versus those with united control under the Democrats (14) or with power divided between the parties (15). (Nebraska is not included in this total because it has a nonpartisan legislature.)
- Pro-democracy Ballot Measures Chalked Up Big Wins — Not to be outdone, numerous progressive election reform measures passed in places across the country, which could be a harbinger of future events. Gerrymandering reform has now passed this year in Colorado, Ohio, Michigan and Missouri, with Utah too close to call. Measures making voter registration easier also passed in Maryland, Michigan and Nevada. In Florida, the right to vote was restored for felons who have served their time. Progressives have seen conservatives steadily strengthen their hold on power in this closely divided nation by tilting the election rules of the game. Time to take the reform issue directly to the voters.
National Implications
These national shifts in political control should be helpful to environmentalists. The House can be a backstop against attempts to weaken our environmental laws, such as wildlife protections. Progressive states can administer federal limits on air and water pollution more beneficially and adopt new state standards of their own to make progress on critical issues such as climate change.
So again, why the long faces if everything’s so rosy?
Well, while we’re facing it, let’s admit that a two-thirds full cup is still not one that’s running over. Control of the House doesn’t make the Senate more likely to pass needed legislation or Trump to sign it if he doesn’t want to. It also doesn’t stop Trump from taking deregulatory executive actions, or Republican states from weakening health care coverage, gun safety laws or climate policies. And it shouldn’t be forgotten that several states rejected clean energy measures on the ballot in Arizona, Colorado and Washington state, although there were wins in California and Nevada.
The lesson for progressives is that’s there is still plenty of work to be done to get ready for 2020.
But meanwhile, drink up Democrats. A two-thirds cup is still a lot of water. And now it should be cleaner water too, at least for a while.
